vlad.tribnet.com / Issue #619 / Opinion / Reading article...

A thaw in relations makes sense for both countries as a way to balance China. There have been so many false starts in Russia-Japan relations that it is understandable that the recent visit of Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to Moscow attracted little international attention.

Nonetheless, add this visit to a few other small but significant news items and one can see signs of a shift in attitudes on both sides. These stem not so much from positive decisions to reject the sense of rivalry for power in northeast Asia.

It is more that Russia, recovering from the humiliations of the Soviet collapse, again sees itself playing a significant role in Asia and has a common interest with Japan in balancing the rapid growth of Chinese power.

Japan has yet to show any sign of softening its stand on the main issue of contention with Russia – the four Kurile Islands occupied by Russia in 1945. In the past, Russia has offered to return two of them but even in the post-Cold war environment Japan has not budged.
However, after the talks President Putin said that the two were moving “in the right direction” on the issue.

In reality other issues now matter more. The most obvious is trade. Japan was late to see the potential of the Russian market but it is now booming, helped both by Japan’s proximity to the Russian far east, and the rail heads at Nakhodka and Vladivostok and by investment such as Toyota’s successful foray into the Russian car market.

After a long struggle for influence, Japan finally prevailed upon Russia to build a pipeline from its eastern Siberia oil fields to Nakhodka. This pipeline will not be completed until about 2015 but part should be ready in 2009, permitting rail shipments the rest of the way to the Pacific coast.

Meanwhile oil and gas development on Sakhalin depend in part on the nearby Japanese market.
Russia is aware that for commercial as well as strategic reasons it needs to foster the Japan and Korean markets.

Russia is showing decreased willingness to sell sophisticated arms and technology to China. Moscow may not be happy with Japan’s often hard-line stance on North Korea but Japan does recognize that a more active Russia does have an important role to play.


The complete version of the story can be found at http://www.thesakhalintimes.com.